mercoledì, giugno 03, 2009
228 morti in attesa di un perché
(aggiornamento)
Cosa si sa
Il Volo Air France 447, decollato alle ore 22.10 (UTC) del 31 maggio da Rio de Janeiro e diretto a Parigi con 228 persone a bordo, è scomparso intorno alle ore 2.14 antimeridiane del 1 giugno in un punto non ancora precisato dell'Oceano Atlantico a circa 500 km a NE delle isole Fernando de Noronha. L'ultimo contatto radio tra i piloti dell'Airbus A330-200 Air France e l'assistenza al volo brasiliana è avvenuto alle ore 1.33, mentre l'aereo si apprestava a uscire dallo spazio aereo sorvegliato dai radar di Natal (BRA) per dirigersi verso quello controllato dall'assistenza al volo senegalese.
In quel momento l'aereo di linea volava a una quota di 10.670 metri alla velocità di crociera di 840 kmh.
Se il volo fosse continuato regolarmente, entro circa 50 minuti l'Airbus sarebbe comparso sugli schermi radar di Dakar e i piloti francesi avrebbero confermato via radio la nuova posizione a entrambe i servizi di assistenza al volo.
Invece, tra le 2.10 e le 2.14 il sistema automatico di trasmissione dei report tecnici (ACARS) dell'aeromobile trasmette via satellite al centro di manutenzione Airbus in Francia una serie di rapporti relativi ad anomalie e malfunzionamenti a catena nella strumentazione di controllo e nell'elettronica di bordo. L'ultimo messaggio automatico segnala una possibile perdita di pressione in cabina e l'avaria completa dei sistemi elettrici.
La tragedia si consuma nel più assoluto silenzio: nessun contatto radio da parte dei piloti, né per segnalare problemi tecnici né per lanciare il mayday.
L'operazione di ricerca e salvataggio, infatti, scatta quando in Brasile rilevano il mancato contatto radio e radar.
La tempesta
Lungo l'aerovia seguita dall'Airbus prende forma un fronte tempestoso di nembocumuli che si sviluppano in altezza fino a 12.000 metri e in profondità per diversi km. Non è un fatto infrequente nella fascia equatoriale dove si incontrano i venti dominanti (alisei) dell'emisfero boreale e australe.
Quell'ammasso di nubi torreggianti è una sorta di enorme, ribollente pentola a pressione; al suo interno le nuvole cariche di umidità salgono fino alla stratosfera, soffiano correnti in salita e in discesa che superano abbondantemente i 100 kmh e si formano campi elettrici di una potenza devastante.
I piloti che volano sulle rotte equatoriali conoscono questi fenomeni di interconvenzione: ne sono informati in tempo reale dalle immagini satellitari e dai bollettini meteo, oltre che dal campo visivo della carlinga, per cui hanno modo di scegliere se aggirare la tempesta o passare dove questa è meno intensa, avendo come punto di riferimento la sicurezza dell'aeromobile e dei passeggeri.
Cosa NON sappiamo
- I tre piloti dell'Airbus erano esperti e consapevoli di cosa si parava loro innanzi. Non sappiamo quale strategia scelsero, per quale motivo l'aeromobile entrò nella tempesta.
- Sappiamo che la violenza delle correnti aeree e l'intensa attività elettrica (fulmini) hanno svolto un ruolo importante nel disastro, ma non quale sia esattamente in un rapporto di causa/effetto rispetto ai gravi problemi ai sistemi elettronici di controllo dell'aeromobile e all'esito finale.
- Si possono fare solo congetture su quanto avvenne nella cabina di pilotaggio. Il disinserimento del pilota automatico fu una scelta del pilota resosi conto che qualcosa non funzionava o uno dei tanti guasti?
Le anomalie nei dati sulla velocità e sull'assetto portarono i piloti a eseguire manovre errate e a mandare l'aereo in stallo nel bel mezzo della tempesta oppure, all'opposto, a spingere il jet sino alla velocità del suono (Mach 1, +/- 1.080 kmh a 10.000 m di quota), provocando un cedimento strutturale? - Come mai il sistema elettronico che governa le funzioni vitali dell'aereo, costruito secondo avanzati criteri di ridondanza (se il sistema principale non funziona correttamente, subentra un sistema secondario e poi un terzo sottosistema) ha fallito in sequenza?
- Tutto lascia pensare che la dinamica dell'evento si sia svolta in modo inaspettato e repentino, tale da superare o vanificare eventuali tentativi di reazione da parte dei piloti.
I comandanti di altri aerei che incrociavano nell'area hanno parlato di un lampo bianco e molto intenso nella direzione in cui avrebbe dovuto trovarsi in quel momento il Volo AF447: potrebbe essere il segno di un'esplosione, non si sa di quale natura, a bordo dell'Airbus.
Se l'aereo è esploso o spezzato in volo precipitando in due o più tronconi, questo forse spiegherebbe perché i report automatici abbiano segnalato valori anomali e malfunzionamenti di natura elettrica ed elettronica. - Non di meno, l'aereo di linea potrebbe anche essere precipitato, totalmente privo di controllo, dopo essere entrato in un irrecuperabile stallo di potenza. L'impatto con la superficie dell'oceano dopo un tuffo infernale da circa 10.000 metri di altezza è qualcosa di difficilmente immaginabile.
Sicurezza
Una cosa è certa: anche in condizioni meteo ideali, i guasti a ripetizione segnalati dai report automatici avrebbero messo a dura prova le capacità dei piloti di condurre l'aeromobile fino al più vicino aeroporto e di atterrare in sicurezza.
L'Airbus A330-200 è un apparecchio reputato tra i più affidabili al mondo proprio per la presenza di sistemi di controllo avanzati. Quello scomparso in mezzo all'Atlantico era uscito di fabbrica nel 2005 e aveva accumulato meno di 20.000 ore di volo. L'ultima manutenzione approfondita in hangar risaliva alla metà di aprile.
Se non verranno recuperate le scatole nere ben difficilmente si arriverà a stabilire le cause del disastro e ad applicare i dovuti correttivi.
Le scatole nere verranno recuperate?
Il pessimismo è d'obbligo. Alcuni dei frammenti localizzati in mare non appartengono, come si era detto in un primo momento, al Volo AF447, e questo rende ancora più complesso delimitare il perimetro della zona di ricerca.
E' vero che le scatole nere sono dotate di un emettitore di impulsi alimentato da una batteria interna che ha un'autonomia di circa un mese e che l'acqua è un buon conduttore acustico. Per localizzare la fonte, però, sono necessari microfoni particolarmente sensibili calati a profondità elevate, in quanto le correnti sottomarine tendono a deviare e smorzare la propagazione dei segnali.
Inoltre, anche se in teoria i mini sommergibili robotizzati francesi possono operare fino a 6000 metri di profondità mentre l'Atlantico in quella zona non supera i 4700 metri, non si sa se i piccoli batiscafi potranno raggiungere le scatole nere in un fondale oceanico fatto di dirupi e gole rocciose.
[Edit - Sat.06.06.2009]
Etichette: bad news unlimited, The Smoking Pipe
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Silenzio e cordoglio per chi nel disastro se n'è andato.
Voce molto alta, invece, insieme a quella di chi è rimasto solo con nient'altro che lacrime, a pretendere risposte per ogni domanda. Ma servirà?
Voce molto alta, invece, insieme a quella di chi è rimasto solo con nient'altro che lacrime, a pretendere risposte per ogni domanda. Ma servirà?
Ehi fratello!!! Vieni ancora a trovarmi nonostante la mia assenza!
Che piacere...
Sai che mi fa pensare a primo impatto la storia di questo aereo?
Ustica...
Che piacere...
Sai che mi fa pensare a primo impatto la storia di questo aereo?
Ustica...
A proposito, visto che ci conosciamo da una vita! (ahahah) hai piacere di chattare? Usi msn o skype?
Mi piace coltivare amicizie creative e intelligenti
Mi piace coltivare amicizie creative e intelligenti
Il giudice Priore ha detto che in questo disastro trova delle analogie impressionanti con la brutta storia di Ustica..se è così, la verità potrebbe arrivare molto tardi.
@Duhangst @Marce @GiraffaC @Melavvelenata
- ho letto anch'io le dichiarazioni di Rosario Priore, ma mi pare che le analogie si restringano al ritardo con cui i francesi hanno reagito dopo che l'Airbus è scomparso dai radar, al loro strani riserbo nel fornire informazioni.
Nella tragica notte di Ustica ci fu qualcosa del genere: il DC9 Itavia volava verso il suo destino "al buio", come se tutti i ponti radio, i radiofari e l'assistenza al volo sulla Blu 21 fossero spenti, in avaria o incustoditi.
Anche allora la traccia radar scomparve: ci fu chi vide e apparecchi che registrarono l'accaduto a Marsala e Poggio Ballone, ma ufficialmente nessuno vide.
Anni dopo, ci fu chi "fu suicidato" per aver messo a rischio la consegna del silenzio e graduati che hanno convissuto per anni con crisi di pianto, incubi e depressione.
Nel caso del Volo AF447 si rischia oggettivamente di non arrivare mai a chiarire la dinamica dei fatti perché i possibili elementi di prova diverranno virtualmente irraggiungibili prima che sul luogo arrivi dalla Francia, dal Regno Unito o dagli USA una spedizione navale di recupero attrezzata.
E' una corsa contro il tempo ad handicap, visto il ritardo nella reazione dei francesi.
Personalmente non credo a un attentato, ma non so spiegarmi un paio di cose:
a) piloti esperti che sottovalutano situazioni meteo non infrequenti a quella latitudine e su quella aerovia, che solo all'ultimo tentano (così sembra) di invertire la rotta;
b) l'ingovernabilità dell'aereo così fulminea e totale da non dare tempo a contromosse o richieste di soccorso. C'è da dire che oltre al calo di pressione nel cockpit e al malfunzionamento della parte elettrica, il segnale automatico ricevuto in Francia segnalava variazioni anomale, totalmente fuori range, nei dati su assetto e altitudine;
C)l'Airbus è venuto giù come un sasso e si è spezzato in più tronconi urtando l'oceano, oppure è "deflagrato" mentre era ancora in aria: se fosse così, perché?
Posso ipotizzare (e sperare) che nessuno a bordo fosse vivo e/o cosciente al momento dell'impatto, se l'evento che ha causato una depressurizzazione a 8.000/10.000 metri è stato particolarmente violento da non dare tempo di indossare le maschere.
A bordo del DC9 Itavia, invece, qualcuno sopravvisse abbastanza da usare la cinta dei calzoni come laccio emostatico per cercare di contenere l'emorragia a una gamba. L'aereo, pur seriamente danneggiato, rimase alcune ore quasi a pelo sull'acqua, come notò l'osservatore a bordo di un Breguet Atlantique del 30 Stormo decollato da Elmas.
Però le navi partite in soccorso dopo l'allarme persero tempo perché messe fuori rotta da indicazioni confuse e/o totalmente errate (e qui c'è un precedente con quanto avvenne nella rada di Livorno dopo la collione tra la Moby Prince e l'Agip Abruzzo).
Nonostante tutto, mi auguro che i parenti di chi era a bordo del AF447 trovino le risposte a cui hanno diritto.
- ho letto anch'io le dichiarazioni di Rosario Priore, ma mi pare che le analogie si restringano al ritardo con cui i francesi hanno reagito dopo che l'Airbus è scomparso dai radar, al loro strani riserbo nel fornire informazioni.
Nella tragica notte di Ustica ci fu qualcosa del genere: il DC9 Itavia volava verso il suo destino "al buio", come se tutti i ponti radio, i radiofari e l'assistenza al volo sulla Blu 21 fossero spenti, in avaria o incustoditi.
Anche allora la traccia radar scomparve: ci fu chi vide e apparecchi che registrarono l'accaduto a Marsala e Poggio Ballone, ma ufficialmente nessuno vide.
Anni dopo, ci fu chi "fu suicidato" per aver messo a rischio la consegna del silenzio e graduati che hanno convissuto per anni con crisi di pianto, incubi e depressione.
Nel caso del Volo AF447 si rischia oggettivamente di non arrivare mai a chiarire la dinamica dei fatti perché i possibili elementi di prova diverranno virtualmente irraggiungibili prima che sul luogo arrivi dalla Francia, dal Regno Unito o dagli USA una spedizione navale di recupero attrezzata.
E' una corsa contro il tempo ad handicap, visto il ritardo nella reazione dei francesi.
Personalmente non credo a un attentato, ma non so spiegarmi un paio di cose:
a) piloti esperti che sottovalutano situazioni meteo non infrequenti a quella latitudine e su quella aerovia, che solo all'ultimo tentano (così sembra) di invertire la rotta;
b) l'ingovernabilità dell'aereo così fulminea e totale da non dare tempo a contromosse o richieste di soccorso. C'è da dire che oltre al calo di pressione nel cockpit e al malfunzionamento della parte elettrica, il segnale automatico ricevuto in Francia segnalava variazioni anomale, totalmente fuori range, nei dati su assetto e altitudine;
C)l'Airbus è venuto giù come un sasso e si è spezzato in più tronconi urtando l'oceano, oppure è "deflagrato" mentre era ancora in aria: se fosse così, perché?
Posso ipotizzare (e sperare) che nessuno a bordo fosse vivo e/o cosciente al momento dell'impatto, se l'evento che ha causato una depressurizzazione a 8.000/10.000 metri è stato particolarmente violento da non dare tempo di indossare le maschere.
A bordo del DC9 Itavia, invece, qualcuno sopravvisse abbastanza da usare la cinta dei calzoni come laccio emostatico per cercare di contenere l'emorragia a una gamba. L'aereo, pur seriamente danneggiato, rimase alcune ore quasi a pelo sull'acqua, come notò l'osservatore a bordo di un Breguet Atlantique del 30 Stormo decollato da Elmas.
Però le navi partite in soccorso dopo l'allarme persero tempo perché messe fuori rotta da indicazioni confuse e/o totalmente errate (e qui c'è un precedente con quanto avvenne nella rada di Livorno dopo la collione tra la Moby Prince e l'Agip Abruzzo).
Nonostante tutto, mi auguro che i parenti di chi era a bordo del AF447 trovino le risposte a cui hanno diritto.
@Macca
- diciamo che quando il mio barometro personale segna tempesta tendo a essere piuttosto drastico: 3 2 1... account disabilitato e via pedalare.
Porgi i miei saluti a Monica, please. Noi ci si sente via blog, as usual :-)
- diciamo che quando il mio barometro personale segna tempesta tendo a essere piuttosto drastico: 3 2 1... account disabilitato e via pedalare.
Porgi i miei saluti a Monica, please. Noi ci si sente via blog, as usual :-)
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